It would have to seriously crush the plate, maille and the gambeson to do you considerable harm and I don't see that happening.
I was specifically referring to the situation Jeff described where the arrow actually did penetrate the breast plate, but the head deformed in the process and didn't go through the gambeson. Even if the force from the penetration is dissipated and doesn't do much damage, suddenly you have a pointy thing jamming into your body underneath your armor which might not be easy to remove, assuming you have a combat-free moment to try. It would be like having a rock in your shoe, only a lot worse.
As for the projectile, if I remember it right, the arrow used on that NOVA program looked like it had a shaft at least a half-inch thick or more. I don't know if that's to withstand the shock of a heavy bow or to do more damage, but it probably doesn't matter. War arrows might have been heavier than we think, so for anybody doing some experimentation, that's worth a bit of research.